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畅享博客 > miq > [分享]欧洲企业库存维持在较低水平
2010/1/12 23:21:09

[分享]欧洲企业库存维持在较低水平

BUSINESSES KEEP INVENTORIES LOW AS DOUBTS OVER RECOVERY LINGER

By Richard Milne in London
 
Businesses are holding extremely low stock levels and are reluctant to boost inventories, according to some of Europe's leading chief _executives – providing evidence of lingering doubts about the durability of economic recovery.
Business leaders from consumer goods, chemicals and manufacturing companies have told the Financial Times that they have little idea of when demand will return.
“Orders are being placed at very short notice. Seven days or two weeks maximum. Before it was two months. So visibility is very low and there is not much restocking,” said Feike Sijbesma, chief _executive of DSM, the Dutch life sciences group that supplies many industries.
Alan_middleton, head of PA Consulting, the UK management consultancy, said: “I think what you're seeing is lots of CEOs telling you that we don't think we're through [the tough times].”
Fluctuating inventories have been a big influence on overall economic activity since the onset of the crisis. Beginning in late 2008, many companies reduced their stock levels aggressively.
The end of that destocking is now helping economies to tentative recovery.
Elga Bartsch, economist at Morgan Stanley, said: “The transition from this inventory-led bounce to a more sustainable recovery is probably not going to be a smooth one.”
Inventories' contribution to European GDP was -5.4 percentage points in the first half of last year but rebounded to add 2.1 percentage points of growth in the second half, according to Morgan Stanley. Their contribution in the first quarter of this year is likely to be just 0.1 percentage point, the bank adds.
 
欧洲企业库存维持在较低水平
英国《金融时报》 理查德•米尔恩伦敦报道
 
欧洲一些领先企业的首席执行官表示,企业当前并不愿增加库存,它们的库存维持在极低的水平。这表明,企业界对经济复苏的持久性仍心存疑虑。
来自消费品业、化工业和制造业公司的商界领袖告诉英国《金融时报》,他们对需求何时复苏心中没底。
“企业在发出订单时,只会提前很短时间给出通知,最多提前一、两周,而以往是提前两个月。因此,经济前景很不明朗,补充存货活动很少,”为很多行业供货的荷兰生命科学集团帝斯曼(DSM)的首席执行官谢白曼(Feike Sijbesma)说。
英国管理咨询公司博安咨询(PA Consulting)的负责人艾伦•米德尔顿(Alan_middleton)说:“我想,你现在所看到的是,无数CEO告诉你他们不认为自己正在走出[艰难时期]。”
 
自危机爆发时起,变化不定的库存水平就一直对整体经济活动造成很大影响。2008年底以来,许多公司大幅降低了库存水平。
如今,去库存化的结束正在帮助经济初步复苏。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)经济学家埃尔加•巴什(Elga Bartsch)说:“从这种库存补充所引领的反弹向更可持续复苏的过渡,很可能不会一帆风顺。”
摩根士丹利的研究表明,去年上半年,库存对欧洲国内生产总值(GDP)的贡献是负5.4个百分点;但到下半年时,这一贡献已反弹至正2.1个百分点。摩根士丹利补充表示,今年第一季度,库存的贡献可能仅有0.1个百分点。
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